Middot; Google Scholar profile. 7 The Shape of Things to Come? Expanding the Inequality and Grievance Model for Civil War Forecasts with Event Data. 2 Institutional Opposition, Regime Accountability, and International Conflict.

How well do we predict? Observed vs. These pages present my research. They contain a complete publication list. As well as downloadable versions of many items, and replication data. Forecasting civil conflict along the shared socioeconomic pathways.

I am associate professor in the School of Global Policy and Strategy. At the University of California, San Diego. For AY 2017-18 I will be a fellow at the Center for Advanced Studies in the Behavioral Sciences. I maintain active research interests in political economy and applied statistics. School of Global Policy and Strategy. 9500 Gilman Drive, MC 0519. La Jolla, CA 92093-0519.

It also draws on previous work Mike Ward, Cassy Dorff, and I have done on forecasting irregular leadership changes, which include coups, but also other mechanisms of sudden leader change. Who define coup attempts as.

Commentary on human rights, conflict, teaching, life as an aspie, and whatever else strikes my fancy. Subpoena the Email, Text and Social Media Messages of Hempstead Jail Staff. There is one thing that Waller County DA Elton Mathis. Can do to break the Blue Wall of Silence. I discussed in a post. But if Ms Bland kept up her taunting throughout the weekend, and someone at the jail lost their cool .

Reflections on social science, politics and education. Is Trump pulling a Colbert on the Republican Party? July 9, 2015. And put other Republican presidential hopefuls now a not insignificant percentage of the entire party in uncomfortable positions. The whole thing is almost too good to be true.

Substantively significant discussion of quantitative social science. In a prior post on my personal blog. I think they come from? 1,426 more words.

I received my PhD in political science from Duke University. The National Basic Theme by bavotasan.

Annual Review of Conflict, Peace and Violence Programs in Political Science. Become a member of the Consortium.